Comments on: How Myths Are Formed! The Law Of Small Numbers & Market Research

By: Musing on investing in the Australian Sharemarket

Musing on investing in the Australian Sharemarket — Fri, 08 Mar 2013 05:01:00 +0000

[...] an interesting article on the law of small numbers as it relates to marketing on this link http://www.greenbookblog.org/2012/05/11/how-myths-are-formed-the-law-of-small-numbers-market-researc…. Using Michael words, the law of small numbers points out that we human beings should be careful of [...]

By: What Do Business People Really Think About Market Research? A Client-Side Perspective. | GreenBook

Tue, 12 Feb 2013 13:19:08 +0000

[...] that may prove to be spurious. This is sometimes the result of poorly designed studies (see The Law Of Small Numbers). But also by the cognitive bias that Kahneman calls What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI). This [...]

By: Jeffrey Hennings’s #MRX Top Ten - From the Whirlwind: Pinterest & Twitter Research Picks Up as Telephone Slows Down | GreenBook

Wed, 30 May 2012 11:18:05 +0000

[...] How Myths Are Formed! The Law Of Small Numbers & Market Research – Writing in the Green Book Blog, Neal Cole reminds us that researchers too make the cognitive mistakes we know consumers do. In particular, researchers often find meaning in noise: as Daniel Kahneman says, “We are far too willing to reject the belief that much of what we see in life is random.” [...]

By: Paul Rothenberg

Paul Rothenberg — Fri, 18 May 2012 15:02:37 +0000

Small sample size is particularly problematic in niche markets. At our b2b market research company, we would be nothing without our PhD analysts to identify which small numbers are meaningful and which aren’t!

By: Dale Gilliam

Dale Gilliam — Thu, 17 May 2012 14:49:10 +0000

Great posting! Very thorough and much appreciated.

By: Tom Brailsford

Tom Brailsford — Thu, 17 May 2012 14:47:37 +0000

All of your points are unassailable as long as the world you live in is the world of prediction. I would agree with the general observation that we want the world to be more knowable than it really is. However, I find it somewhat ironic that your treatise on how research should be is based on the observation of one individual in a book!
As a statistician in a research environment, my challenge is living between being right and being helpful. You may say, “You can’t be helpful if you’re not right!” If I consider that “all measurement is a compromise with reality” (Jerry Zaltman) being right is as comparable an illusion to believing in insights from few observations. When I compound the speed of the business and the limits of the budget, the reality is that “valid” sample sizes are out of reach for most questions we deal with. In contrast, I would observe that in the quest for insights, don’t dismiss the power of n=1!

By: Larry Hammond

Larry Hammond — Wed, 16 May 2012 15:05:37 +0000

Focus group researchers and users, take heed.

By: Mike Thompson

Mike Thompson — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:28:36 +0000

Hooray,

Someone at last preaching proper methodology over convenience.

By: LD

LD — Tue, 15 May 2012 13:20:48 +0000

Enjoyed your post, very insightful !