November 15, 2016

Predicting Election 2016: What Worked, What Didn’t and the Implications for MR

GreenBook and the ARF discuss the ramifications of this election.

Predicting Election 2016: What Worked, What Didn’t and the Implications for MR
Leonard Murphy

by Leonard Murphy

Chief Advisor for Insights and Development at Greenbook

0

 

Almost everyone failed to predict the outcome of the 2016 U.S. election, and the winner came as a shock to many pollsters, the media, and people in the U.S. and around the world. How did we get it so wrong, and what does this mean for marketing and insights?

On November 29th, we’ll be exploring that very topic at our upcoming event, Predicting Election 2016: What Worked, What didn’t and the Implications for Marketing & Insights, brought to you by GreenBook and the ARF.

The event will take place from 8:30am to 11am.  We’ll start with webinar with 4 short presentations related to new thinking about predicting election results and then transition to a live-streamed panel with key thought leaders and experts for a lively discussion on what we can learn from this election cycle related to tools to predict outcomes. The agenda is still coming together so look for an update on specific presenters soon, but trust us, it’s going to be very, very good.

For those in New York, we’d love to have you join us live at the ARF Headquarters in New York, but the event will be available to join virtually as well.

Register here: http://thearf.org/event/nov-29-2016-predicting-election-2016/

During this event, we won’t be rehash the polls or outcome of the election, but rather explore the implications of this polling failure for commercial research and analytics on the things that are important to our industry: trust in research (especially surveys!), new tools and techniques, predicting & modeling behavior or trends, implicit vs. explicit data sources, the application of cognitive & behavioral psychology, and more.

Now is the time to have meaningful conversations about the lessons learned from this election cycle and to apply those learnings to not only political polling, but public policy and commercial research in all of their many forms. Arguably approaches using experimental polling methods social media analytics, behavioral economics-based analysis, big data, meta analysis and data synthesis, and text analytics were more predictive of the results than traditional polling, and the implications of that for other forms of research should not be ignored. Conversely, are some of the approached pioneered in commercial research for ad testing, forecasting, attribution modelling, etc.. applicable to increase the accuracy of polling?

We’ll be tackling all of these topics and more during this joint program with the ARF, so we hope you’ll join us virtually or in person for the discussion!

 

Photo by BP Miller on Unsplash

0

behavioral sciencebig dataelectionspollingtext analytics

Disclaimer

The views, opinions, data, and methodologies expressed above are those of the contributor(s) and do not necessarily reflect or represent the official policies, positions, or beliefs of Greenbook.

Comments

More from Leonard Murphy

The Next Wave of Disruptive Technology that Changes Everything

Research Technology (ResTech)

The Next Wave of Disruptive Technology that Changes Everything

There have been a few big inflection points of societal disruption driven by technology in the last 50 years: One was the introduction of the Internet...

Leonard Murphy

Leonard Murphy

Chief Advisor for Insights and Development at Greenbook

Quantifying the Impact of Insight Innovation

Insights Industry News

Quantifying the Impact of Insight Innovation

We previously announced the milestone of our Insight Innovation Exchange (IIEX) conference series’ 10th anniversary, celebrating a decade of identifyi...

Leonard Murphy

Leonard Murphy

Chief Advisor for Insights and Development at Greenbook

How Generative AI is Changing the Research Industry

The Prompt

How Generative AI is Changing the Research Industry

ChatGPT (GPT meaning “Generative Pre-trained Transformer”) is a chatbot launched by OpenAI in November 2022. It has quickly exploded in public awarene...

Leonard Murphy

Leonard Murphy

Chief Advisor for Insights and Development at Greenbook

Celebrating 10 Years of Innovation with IIEX

Insights Industry News

Celebrating 10 Years of Innovation with IIEX

Editor’s Note: The following is a joint statement from Lukas Pospichal, GreenBook’s Managing Director, and Lenny Murphy, GreenBook’s Chief Advisor for...

Leonard Murphy

Leonard Murphy

Chief Advisor for Insights and Development at Greenbook

ARTICLES

Moving Away from a Narcissistic Market Research Model

Research Methodologies

Moving Away from a Narcissistic Market Research Model

Why are we still measuring brand loyalty? It isn’t something that naturally comes up with consumers, who rarely think about brand first, if at all. Ma...

Devora Rogers

Devora Rogers

Chief Strategy Officer at Alter Agents

The Stepping Stones of Innovation: Navigating Failure and Empathy with Carol Fitzgerald
Natalie Pusch

Natalie Pusch

Senior Content Producer at Greenbook

Sign Up for
Updates

Get what matters, straight to your inbox.
Curated by top Insight Market experts.

67k+ subscribers

Weekly Newsletter

Greenbook Podcast

Webinars

Event Updates

I agree to receive emails with insights-related content from Greenbook. I understand that I can manage my email preferences or unsubscribe at any time and that Greenbook protects my privacy under the General Data Protection Regulation.*